THE situation moving toward a ceasefire has taken a new turn.
It appears that the Iran-Israel war is intensifying and its destructiveness is increasing.
The first major signal of this came from Netanyahu, who spoke about evacuating Tehran.
Donald Trump followed Netanyahu’s lead and also said that Tehran should be evacuated.
The talk of evacuating Tehran is extremely dangerous.
It implies that the population should leave the city because heavier attacks are expected.
Intensified attacks could also mean that the city might be reduced to rubble.
However, the tone in which Netanyahu spoke suggested something even more severe.
He seriously gave the impression that the war is entering a new phase in which Iran’s actual leadership—namely, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei—will be targeted.
This impression was conveyed even though just two days ago, a revelation had surfaced regarding Donald Trump: that Netanyahu had sought his permission to target the Supreme Leader, but Trump had prevented him from escalating the matter to that level.
Such news doesn’t surface accidentally—they are deliberately leaked to send messages to both sides.
The revelation that Trump stopped Netanyahu from going to extremes was also meant to convey that an immediate end to the war was desired.
Then what happened that Trump too echoed Netanyahu and called for evacuating Tehran?
In response, Tehran also had to issue a threat that Tel Aviv should be evacuated.
Another threat from Tehran stated that Israel would be made uninhabitable.
Meanwhile, the attacks intensified further.
Iran’s state-run television channel was attacked.
In other attacks, the number of martyred nuclear scientists reached 14, while the civilian death toll rose to around 250.
At the end of the first week of war, what do these developments indicate?
Do they mean what they appear to on the surface?
Judging by the rhetoric adopted by both sides, as well as the US President, it seems so.
Donald Trump further reinforced this impression by refusing to sign the G7 declaration.
At the same time, he also deemed it necessary to say that Iran is not winning the war.
In the G7 declaration, while Israel’s right to self-defence was recognized, concerns were also raised over the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with a call made to the IAEA to halt those attacks.
Donald Trump disagreed and refused to sign the declaration.
His refusal would have meant the conference had failed.
To avoid this impression, G7 leaders had to revise the declaration, after which Trump signed it.
In the revised declaration, Iran was blamed for escalating tensions.
This is one aspect of the situation.
The other relates to the movement and transfer of dangerous weaponry into the Middle East.
The transfer of arms by the U.S.and other powers reinforces the perception that the war is escalating further.
Is the U.S.truly moving toward escalation in line with Netanyahu’s wishes?
That’s how it appears, but there is another side to the picture.
After the conference, Trump cut short his visit to Canada and returned to the U.S.
It was also reported that he has instructed the establishment of a Situation Room to monitor the war closely.
Another report said he has directed White House officials to make immediate arrangements for a meeting with Iranian officials.
This suggests that Trump is playing both hot and cold, but is actually working on a different plan.
What is that plan?
That plan is what has been speculated—namely, a ceasefire.
But the U.S. has a problem.
What is that problem?
It is the increasingly clear perception that, contrary to expectations, Iran has not only responded forcefully, but has dealt Israel a blow that no one anticipated.
This blow to Israel has created the impression that Tehran is emerging victorious.
It is this impression that Trump felt compelled to counter.
He wants to eliminate this narrative first so that Iran is not perceived as dominant on the global stage, nor emboldened to take a hard stance that could complicate matters.
Despite all these challenges, Trump wants to move toward a ceasefire, but the groundwork still needs to be laid.
Progress in this direction may be expected in the coming days.
There will eventually be peace in the Middle East and Netanyahu’s ambitions will be thwarted.
After the G7, the Prime Ministers of the UK and France met.
It was stated in the meeting that for the next two days, attention will be focused solely on the Middle East, over and above all other matters.
This too implies that peace is the objective—had escalation been expected, they wouldn’t have limited the discussion to just two days.
—This writer is former advisor to the President of Pakistan, author & mass media theorist. (farooq.adilbhuta@gmail,com)
